Charlie follows the golf industry stocks such as Golfsmith, Callaway Golf and Fortune Brands (Acushnet). He does this for his own amusement since he doesn't own stock – he left that up to me. Even he's surprised at how far in value the stocks of golf companies have dropped this year.
As we watch the saga of the Big 3 Auto makers unfold and read the pros and cons of bankruptcy I wonder how an international industry such as automobiles or golf can survive if a critical number of consumers stop buying? What is that critical number? Is it regional, national or international?
The golf courses around here are offering terrific deals to play. You can practically play for free sometimes. Any nice day in November is potentially incremental business for a golf course so giving you a deal is good for both.
It's not that way with golf equipment. There is only so much room for deals and giving away the product is really not an option. Unlike golf courses the retailers are beholden to the equipment manufacturers who have to deal with multiple sales channels mostly competing with each other for the same piece of pie. Price wars have driven many a small retailer out of business and it's not clear what the major equipment companies want to happen.
Some years ago I read an article about the future demise of major league baseball. The writer believed that baseball would fade into the sunset as fewer people played the game and eventually watched the game because of the myriad of problems MLB owners and the players' union caused.
That may not be the case but who knows? Maybe baseball will be just something in history books 50 years from now or only played by tiny sects of fans like cricket in India. Somehow, the Chicago teams make it possible for people of most incomes to see some of the games some of the time. As long as there are fans the game should last, even if fewer of these fans ever play.
I doubt that's the case with golf. Is the club industry intertwined with the game itself that one can't survive without the other? If the going gets tough will golfers forego new clubs to play more golf? For how long?